Related All of a sudden we have a little bit of everything going on in the world of sports …It’s probably a good thing the Jazz didn’t invite the fans for draft night at the EnergySolutions Arena like they have in the past. The reaction to the pick of Kosta Koufos would likely have been similar to the reaction at Madison Square Garden when the Knicks chose Italian Danilo Gallinari. Which was similar to the one at my house by my Jazz-fan son when the Jazz chose Koufos …There’s something about unknown big guys with funny names that makes fans wary. Sometimes they work out (Dirk Nowitzki, Manu Ginobli) and sometimes they don’t (Darko Milicic, Niciloz Tskitishvili, Oleksiy Pecherov, Greg Ostertag) …The Jazz brass certainly were excited to get a player projected to be picked as high as 13 or 14 at No. 23. However, the simple fact is, Koufos fell to 23 for a reason or else a bunch of teams would have taken him. You can’t say the Jazz got a lottery player. He’s still a No. 23 pick …I’m not saying Koufos won’t be a good player. He’s been compared favorably by some to Mehmet Okur, so perhaps he can take the Turk’s place in four or five years. By then he’ll only be 23 or 24 …Good for BYU’s Trent Plaisted to get drafted after a lot of folks thought he wouldn’t. I’ll still be surprised if he sticks on Detroit’s roster, but then again I’m still surprised former BYU center Greg Kite lasted for 12 seasons in the NBA …Speaking of Kite, did you know he started 225 games during his career, including all 82 in 1990-91 with Orlando? At least Plaisted is a slightly better free-throw shooter than Kite, who shot an abysmal 48.6 percent from the foul line in his NBA career …Once again, no American male players made it to the second week of Wimbledon. This year was one of the worst ever, however, with only one American male player making it as far as the third round, the worst U.S. showing since 1926. With Ana Ivanovic and Maria Sharapova both eliminated last week, the Williams sisters are on a collision course for the finals, unless they start playing like the American men …How about former Salt Lake pitcher Jered Weaver becoming just the fifth pitcher in Major League history to be the losing pitcher in a no-hitter pitched by his own team. Weaver pitched the first six innings of the Angels 1-0 loss to the Dodgers Friday, but his error contributed to L.A.’s only run in the fifth inning …Just when local fans were getting excited about the Blaze, they go and blow a lead and lose a playoff game at home. While it was disappointing, give Danny White and the Blaze credit for recovering from that awful 0-9 start all the way to hosting a first-round playoff game …Just when local fans are getting excited about Real Salt Lake after five straight games without a loss, the team goes and loses in the worst possible way — an own-goal in the 89th minute to one of the league’s worst teams. At least RSL still has more than three months left on its schedule, unlike the Blaze, who are done for the year …Not that an American has to win the U.S. Women’s Open, but it was too bad to see Stacy Lewis fade badly Sunday with a 78. The winner, in case you didn’t see, was 19-year-old South Korean Inbee Park, not to be confused with Angela Park, a 19-year-old Brazilian-born 19-year-old of Korean descent, who lives in California. She finished in a tie for third place with Lewis and In-Kyung Kim, not to be confused with Mi Hyun Kim, who finished in a tie for sixth, and Song-Hee Kim, who tied for 24th …Who’s the best player on the PGA Tour now that Tiger Woods is out for the season? It’s got to be 47-year-old Kenny Perry, who won for the second time this year at the Buick Open and moved into third place on the FedEx points list. Kenny Perry? Yikes … Finally, for all you diehard college football fans, the season begins exactly two months from today for BYU, Utah and Utah State (Weber State starts two days earlier), with training camps a little more than a month away. Utah Jazz notes: Williams making himself at home in Utah — all year E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org
In 1994, I had only been watching the NFL for a couple of years. I lived in Hawaii, where the closest thing to a home team we had was the Pro Bowl — which pretty much made me a Dallas Cowboys fan. I griped when it seemed like the Miami Dolphins were on TV every week.But that changed on Nov. 27, when I watched the Dolphins come back from a 17-0 third-quarter deficit against the New York Jets, culminating with Dan Marino’s legendary “Clock, Clock, Clock” play with 30 seconds left that led to the game-winning touchdown. It made me a Dolphins fan for life.1In fairness, looking back on this it seems pretty antiquated. There were 22 seconds left on the clock when he made that pass — teams would never let up in that spot today. It blew my young mind. Marino’s fake-spike and pass to the end zone was thrilling and unexpected, but it made so much sense! After getting a first down with little time left, teams always spiked the ball. This is something that an ideal team would never do, as it would always have its next play ready. Yet it was so routine that defenses mostly took the play off, something the Dolphins eagerly exploited. This was the moment at which my long journey toward skeptical sports analysis began.2Until that moment, I never knew myself.As my obsession with football increased, my passion for the Dolphins did as well.3In 1996, Miami hired Jimmy Johnson, one of the architects of the Hershel Walker trade, and an innovator (sometimes for worse than for better) in economic-style draft analysis. But in the decades since, I’ve had my heart broken one too many times, and I’ve become numb to Dolphins results.For a few minutes on Sunday, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers brought those feelings back. With 22 seconds left in the fourth quarter and trailing by four points against the — my! — Miami Dolphins, Rodgers completed a pass inbounds. He rushed to the line and snapped the ball with 13 seconds left, on what everyone seemed to think was going to be a spike — he was selling it so hard he deserved a Razzie4Seriously, why defenses aren’t assuming every “spike” play is a fake is beyond me. Also, the more emphatically the quarterback gestures that he is going to spike, the more likely the fake is on! — but it wasn’t. Rodgers flung the pass down the right sideline to Davante Adams, and Adams ran it out of bounds at the 4-yard line. First-and-goal, seconds remaining.The Dolphins took a timeout, and in the minute or so between that completion and their final play, I was a young Dolphins fanatic, hoping that I wouldn’t have my heart broken again. On the next play Rodgers threw a game-winning touchdown.Aaron Rodgers is something of an enigma. I’ve written about him several times before, pointing out that he’s statistically one of the best quarterbacks in football — maybe ever — but he takes few risks when his team is down and rarely leads the Packers to comeback victories.But with this win against the Dolphins, along with his Week 2 comeback against the Jets, it appeared my theory of Rodgers was on shaky ground. So I decided to look into his comeback conundrum more deeply — was it due to bad play? Or bad luck? Bad defense? Something else? Nothing at all?In a surprise, I found that Rodgers actually has a history of being great in comeback situations like the one he faced against the Dolphins. In the fourth quarter, with his team needing a touchdown to tie or take the lead (that is, down 4 points to 8 points), only Peyton Manning has led his team to a higher percentage of touchdown drives:So bravo, Aaron. The Hacker Gods, who rule over this terrestrial simulation from their higher order reality much as Odin rules over Midgard from his perch in Valhalla, did everything in their power to get me to recognize your brilliance. They’ve sent me the ravens Huginn and Muninn to change my thought and mind. Perhaps they’re even daring me to eat them. And perhaps someday I will, but not today.Chart of the weekWhile I applaud Rodgers’s fourth-quarter driving efforts, breaking down his game more thoroughly has made me more convinced that he’s too cautious.For this chart, I’ve taken quarterback drives in the second half of games and broken them down into four categories: 1) games in which the quarterback’s team is more than a touchdown behind (down 9 or more points); 2) games in which the quarterback’s team needs a touchdown to tie or take the lead (down 4 to 8 points); 3) games in which the two teams are within a field goal of each other; and 4) games in which the quarterback’s team is ahead by 4 points or more. I’ve then plotted the percentage of such drives that end with a touchdown versus the percentage of those games won. (The bubble size is the number of drives.) I’ve highlighted the results for Rodgers and Manning, and noted their interception percentages.A few things pop out of there:When leading by 4 or more points in the second half, both Rodgers (6.2 percent) and Manning (7.9 percent) throw a pretty low percentage of interceptions. About 30 percent of their drives end in touchdowns (29.8 percent and 29.5 percent, respectively) and both win at a very high rate (90.9 percent and 92.9 percent of the time, respectively).When the game is close — up or down 3 or fewer points — Manning’s interception rate drops a little (to 5.8 percent), while his touchdown percentage goes up a little (to 31.4 percent). Overall, Manning is still winning 77.7 percent of these games, while Rodgers’s (8.3 percent interception rate, 26.6 percent TD rate) winning percentage drops all the way down to 55.1 percent.When their teams are down 4 points to 8 points (i.e., they need a touchdown to win), both Rodgers’s and Manning’s TD rates shoot way up (Manning: 45.7 percent, Rodgers 40.0 percent). Manning’s interception rate also climbs (10.9 percent), while Rodgers’s drops (7.3 percent). Rodgers is winning a smaller share of these games (31.3 percent vs. Manning’s 44.9 percent), but it’s one of his best showings overall (and includes the scenarios in the intro above).It’s when the quarterbacks’ teams are down 9 or more points in the second half that you really see the difference. Peyton Manning throws interceptions on 15.6 percent of his drives, compared to Rodgers’ 8.1 percent. And for that, Manning is punished … by winning 28.6 percent of these games. Rodgers, meanwhile, wins 0 percent. That’s right, Rodgers has zero comebacks of 9 or more points in the second half. Ever.Judging any QB in relation to Peyton Manning is setting him up for failure. But the starkness of the difference is pretty amazing. Rodgers has zero wins in 21 games while Manning has 14 wins in 49 games, with Manning throwing interceptions nearly twice as often. If you need one stat to demonstrate the gunslinger hypothesis (i.e. that you can throw too few interceptions as well as too many), that would probably be it.Twitter question of the weekLast week, I introduced a chart meant to show how second-and-1 is basically preferable to first-and-10, even if it means sacrificing a couple of yards to get it. This has tactical implications (if a running back can’t get at least a couple of yards past the first-down marker, he should go down just before it), and can even affect how we evaluate players (for example, I love to see a running back get a lot of 9-yard runs).So this week’s question is brought to you by a number of tweeters, emailers and Facebook commenters, but here’s the one I thought put it most explicitly: It’s a very fair question. If stronger teams attempt a disproportionate share of second-and-1s, they would inflate the value of second-and-1 in my analysis.This is something I’ve looked into before, and indeed, stronger teams do account for a larger share of second-and-1s. However, they also take a larger number of first-and-10s. The net difference is negligible, and my result holds: For a typical team, second-and-short is still a few yards preferable to first-and-10.For those interested in how I got there: I projected expected points per drive based on down, distance to first down, and distance to the end zone.5This was done with a regression to points scored that used goal distance and “down/distance,” the latter as a single categorical variable. I’ve plotted the results of this for second-and-x at midfield as the top line below, and marked the value for a first-and-10 at midfield as the top dashed line.Second down becomes about as valuable as first down when it’s second-and-3, and is up to a third of a point better at second-and-1.I then used the same model, except I adjusted for team strength bias and calculated the results based on what we would expect for an average team,6By including team season as a categorical variable and then setting its value to 0. and plotted those the same way.Sure enough, our second-and-short expectation drops by more than half a point when adjusted for what kinds of teams are likely to be in second-and-short positions. But so does our expectation for first-and-10. Thus, in the adjusted results, though the average points per drive are lower, the break-even point is still around second-and-3, and second-and-1 is still about a third of a point better than first-and-10.7All in all, the first down line drops slightly less than the second-and-short line: The gap between second-and-1 and first-and-10 drops from 0.32 expected points to 0.27 expected points.We can then repeat this process to adjust for strength of defense, but it follows exactly the same dynamics: Teams are more likely to give up second-and-short by just about the same amount they’re more likely to give up first downs.Gunslinger of the weekOur winner this week is Ryan “He was a first-round draft pick?” Tannehill, who threw two interceptions in the second quarter against the Packers, both with his team trailing, yet managed to claw his way into the lead before the Dolphins succumbed to Rodgers’s dirty trickery.Also, following that fake-clock debacle, Tannehill kept his composure well enough to complete two passes on a last-ditch, lateral-laden desperation play.I love those plays, though they obviously never work. A well-executed lateral play can double a team’s chances of winning — OK, maybe from half a percent to 1 percent, but still. Not going all-out on a last-minute play is just throwing away fractions of a win.Kicking awards for Week 6This week I used an algorithm8OK, it just sums the standard deviations of points vs. expectation and contribution to margin of victory. to pick the most and least valuable kickers, and I thought its results were pretty good.9I’ve changed up my most/least valuable kicker chart a little this week by capping the margin of victory contribution at 100 percent.For least valuable, a case could be made for Matt Prater, who went 1-in-3 in his first week back from suspension and his first week with the Detroit Lions. Detroit’s ice-cold kicking continues, and its season total of 20.0 points below expectation is now just a sliver behind San Francisco’s 2012 record of 20.6. But, fortunately for Prater, the Lions didn’t need his kicks in their comfortable win against the Vikings.The most dramatic miss of Week 6 was by the Cincinnati Bengals’ Mike Nugent, who shanked a 36-yard field goal as time expired in overtime against the Carolina Panthers, leaving the two teams tied. But perhaps lost in that drama is the fact that the Panthers’ Graham Gano also missed a 38-yard attempt in the third quarter. Both Gano and Nugent made three of four field goals in a game where four would have gotten them the win, but because Nugent’s attempts were slightly harder (made FGs of 44, 38 and 42 yards), Gano (made FGs of 39, 44 and 36 yards) wins least valuable kicker of the week.For most valuable kicker, the Dallas Cowboys’ Dan Bailey narrowly beat out the Atlanta Falcons’ Matt Bryant (Bailey’s three made field goals contributed more to his team’s margin of victory than Bryant’s two). Bailey is now the NFL’s all-time FG percentage leader for someone with a minimum of 100 kicks. Moreover, 20 of his attempts have been for 50 or more yards — of which he has made 14.10Recall Mike Vanderjagt had only one attempt of 50+ yards in his perfect season. This makes Bailey 28.2 points above expectation on just 112 attempts. Here’s how that stacks up to other kickers since 2001 (adjusted for era):Dan Bailey (class of 2011), Justin Tucker (2012) and Blair Walsh (2012) are this generation’s golden triad of kickers, and their infiltration of the record books has likely just begun.Rookie QB watchAfter limited action last week, the rookie QBs really got to work in Week 6. My ranking of their career prospects:The Jacksonville Jaguars’ Blake Bortles had 336 yards, one touchdown and one interception. He keeps the top spot by virtue of yardage and still being the top draft pick.The Oakland Raiders’ Derek Carr had a stellar day in his first action since his coach got fired. In the Raiders’ loss against a strong Chargers team, he managed 282 yards and four touchdowns. As I’ve mentioned repeatedly, yards and touchdowns are the main predictors of rookie success, so this was a good game for Carr regardless. But a rookie who throws four TDs is standing on pretty hallowed ground, let alone four TDs in a game by Week 6 of his rookie year11Counting “true rookies” only. Meaning quarterbacks drafted in the same year they played.: The last (and to Pro-Football-Reference game-finder’s knowledge only) player to do so was Hall of Famer Fran Tarkenton in 1961.The median career Approximate Value for a (retired) QB on this list is 92! For comparison, when evaluating draft prospects, I sometimes use a “success” line of 32, which so far nine of the 12 QBs on this list have surpassed. From Carr’s draft position, his chances of being “successful” were about 28 percent. Is it silly to read so much into one crazy performance? Maybe a bit, but there’s such uncertainty with rookie QB prognostication that Bayesian reasoning comes into play. Carr’s four-TD game as a rookie is extremely rare, but it’s less rare among great quarterbacks. Rapidly updating beliefs in light of new information is what Bayesian inference is all about. So the question is: Which is more unlikely, that Carr is bad and had a freak performance, or that Carr is good and had a very good performance? The Minnesota Vikings’ Teddy Bridgewater had 188 yards with no TDs and three interceptions in the Vikings’ game against Detroit. As usual, the interceptions don’t mean much for a rookie, but the lack of yards and TDs do. In three games, Bridgewater has yet to throw a touchdown (though he has one TD on the ground).The New England Patriots’ Jimmy Garoppolo did not play, but the news for him is that Tom Brady had a stellar week with over 300 yards and four TDs. This is bad for Garoppolo’s chances of getting into the game anytime soon, as Brady might have more left in the tank than we thought. On the other hand, the Patriots recovering from dire straits to their present 4-2 record may also be good news for Garoppolo: If the Belichick-led Patriots are able to maintain their high level of performance indefinitely, that means Garoppolo’s chances of having a good career will converge with his chances of being the Patriots’ heir apparent.The Cleveland Browns’ Johnny Manziel did not play. And his starting competition seems to be getting better and better. Journeyman quarterback Brian Hoyer — who had only started four games in his five-year career prior to 2014 — is now 3-2 this year with an NFL passer rating of 99.5 and a Total QBR of 75.4 (good for seventh in the league).Most empirically significant game of Week 7I’m taking the New Orleans Saints (2-3) vs. the Detroit Lions (4-2).This is an extremely high-leverage game for both teams. Per the charts from Week 1, having a record of two wins and three losses is the second-highest-leverage game for a team that won 12 or more the previous season (the Saints won 11).12The highest is the last game of the season for teams that are 9-6. Of 2-3 teams that won their sixth game, 61 percent made the playoffs. Of those that lost their sixth game, only 6 percent made the playoffs. On the Lions’ side, looking at the charts for all teams no matter their previous season, 4-2 teams that win their next game make the playoffs 75 percent of the time, teams that lose it just 50 percent.But these are also two franchises and two quarterbacks at a crossroads.Drew Brees and the Saints have five 10-win seasons together, including three straight 5,000-yard seasons prior to this year and a Super Bowl win. Matthew Stafford has put up big numbers but not a lot of wins. Collectively, they hold six of the top nine spots on the leaderboard for most passing yards in a season.Other interesting angles include: Can Brees defy concerns about his age as deftly as he defied concerns about his height? Are Stafford’s numbers soft, or is he the next big thing? Can some coach not named Bill Belichick keep a franchise competitive for more than a few years?I’ll be watching.Reminder: If you tweet questions to me @skepticalsports, there is a non-zero chance that I’ll answer them here.Charts by Reuben Fischer-Baum.CORRECTION (Oct. 16, 11:36 a.m): An earlier version of this article incorrectly stated which team took a time out during a fourth-quarter Green Bay Packers drive in their Sunday game against the Miami Dolphins. It was the Dolphins, not the Packers.
Facebook Twitter Google+LinkedInPinterestWhatsAppSalt Cay, 04 Oct 2014 (Photos from 4News on WIV show) Our children love being TCI! The food and music culture on display as Govt Support Services and the Culture Department offered special ferry service to tiny Salt Cay for the vweekend events.Tomorrow the Gospel Pioneers perform! See highlights on 4News on Monday! Facebook Twitter Google+LinkedInPinterestWhatsApp Salt Cay being ignored, Member & Native demand better Recommended for you Small Salt Cay gets huge experience in New DC Related Items:national heritage month, salt cay Cool down for Thanksgiving postpones Salt Cay fun
WILMINGTON, MA — Below are some of the newest job openings in Wilmington:Full-Time Physical Therapist at Wilmington Public SchoolsFull-Time Customer Service Representative at D.B. RobertsFull-Time Commissioning Manager at Limbach Facility ServicesFull-Time/Part-Tiem Member Services Representative at Planet FitnessFull-Time Warehouse Associate at West Springfield Auto Parts Inc.Full-Time Warehouse Stockroom Associate at NAPA Auto PartsFull-Time Delivery Driver at AFR Furniture RentalFull-Time Crew Chief Technician at SERVPROFull-Time Delivery Driver at FedEx WarehouseFull-Time Senior Mechanical Engineer at Ametek(NOTE: Wilmington businesses — Feel free to send me your job postings at email@example.com.)Like Wilmington Apple on Facebook. Follow Wilmington Apple on Twitter. Follow Wilmington Apple on Instagram. Subscribe to Wilmington Apple’s daily email newsletter HERE. Got a comment, question, photo, press release, or news tip? Email firstname.lastname@example.org.Share this:TwitterFacebookLike this:Like Loading… RelatedNOW HIRING: 60 New Job Openings In Wilmington (Week of August 4, 2019)In “Business”NOW HIRING: 10 New Job Openings In WilmingtonIn “Business”NOW HIRING: 60 New Job Openings In Wilmington (Week of July 14, 2019)In “Business”
The government shutdown hasn’t really taken hold of the automotive industry, at least not in ways that will immediately affect consumers. However, if it continues to stretch on, it could spell trouble for automakers trying to push new metal to dealerships.Automotive News pointed out in a story published Thursday that new vehicle certifications are halted during a government shutdown. This means the EPA can’t process and certify new vehicles as being road-legal, resulting in automakers waiting to get new cars on lots, possibly missing estimated launch dates in the process.The EPA doesn’t even do all the testing itself, AN says, but that doesn’t mean it keeps operating during a shutdown. Automakers can submit self-test data to the EPA for evaluation, but it still needs to be evaluated. From the roughly 1,200 compliance requests it fields each year, the EPA randomly selects and tests about 200 on its own.While a number of new vehicles debuted at the 2019 Detroit Auto Show this week, many are slated for arrival at dealerships several months from now. AN talked to representatives from both General Motors and Ford, and while both said they had certifications in the queue, both also signaled that the shutdown hasn’t yet affected their plans. FCA, on the other hand, has certifications for gas variants of the 2019 Ram 2500 and 3500 that debuted this week, but the big-boy Cummins diesel variant (with its 1,000 pound-feet of torque) is still awaiting the green light from the feds. However, a representative for FCA told AN that “shipments are not being delayed by emission certification,” at least for now. Car Industry Future Cars Tags More From Roadshow 2020 Hyundai Palisade review: Posh enough to make Genesis jealous 99 Photos 2020 BMW M340i review: A dash of M makes everything better 2019 Ram Heavy Duty has all the torque Share your voice Post a comment 0 2020 Kia Telluride review: Kia’s new SUV has big style and bigger value
With a penchant for scoring big Test hundreds, Indian opener Murali Vijay is now aiming to cross the 200-run barrier as he approaches the next phase of his cricketing career.The Tamil Nadu batsman, who scored a patient 150 in the ongoing one-off rain-hit Test against Bangladesh here, has registered six centuries in 32 matches with scores of 139, 167, 153, 146, 144 and 150 adorning the list. The 31-year-old player now wants to take it to the next level. Also Read – Khel Ratna for Deepa and Bajrang, Arjuna for Jadeja“Yes, I am aiming for that. I have been batting well and scoring these 140s and 150s. Now it’s time to take another step and aim for a double hundred. To achieve that I am working on my fitness.“As I said earlier, after having batted long enough to get to 150 your body tires out due to the external factors like the heat and humidity. That affects your mind. If you have the will to do it, you will. I have that will and I am doing everything I can to achieve that. Hopefully it is around the corner,” Vijay told bcci.tv when asked about his love for big scores. Also Read – Endeavour is to facilitate smooth transition: ShastriVijay was instrumental in helping India get to 462 for six declared in the first innings after he stitched a 283-run opening stand with Shikhar Dhawan (173). The Chennai-born player said he being friends with his opening partner has helped him.“It is said that for the openers it is important to be good friends off the field in order to succeed as a pair on it. And it is absolutely true. Shikhar and I share a very good rapport off the field and that helps us in the middle.Although our games are different, we know each other’s games very well.